Initial Daily Campaign Agent release

2026-09-16 21:00:13 +08:00
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+# Change response and recovery analysis
+
+Use this reference only when a recent intervention or suspected change point matters:
+budget/bid scaling, rollback, targeting or word-pack changes, creative replacement,
+Ad Group restructuring, a sudden deterioration, a new “black horse,” or a request to
+rescue a previously successful entity.
+
+## 1. Reconstruct the timeline before assigning cause
+
+Create a compact event timeline from the report and intervention log. Split relevant
+history into:
+
+1. **Pre-change control:** the last sufficiently stable configuration and its mature
+   KPI cohorts.
+2. **Transition:** delivery dates whose outcomes are immature or mix old and new
+   configuration effects.
+3. **Post-change:** only cohorts mature enough for each KPI.
+
+Compare like-for-like phases at the lowest trustworthy entity. Show exact dates,
+spend, sample, KPI results, and configuration when known. Rolling 7D/14D windows remain
+useful context, but must not blur a sharp phase break.
+
+Timing is not causality. Use language such as `与变更时间一致` until competing
+explanations are checked. If deterioration began before restructuring, say so: the
+restructure may have amplified or failed to fix the problem, but is not the sole
+demonstrated cause.
+
+## 2. Separate expansion shock from organic deterioration
+
+Call an expansion-related deterioration plausible only when a confirmed budget, bid,
+reach, allocation, or traffic-mix change precedes the mature decline. Observed spend
+alone is not budget history.
+
+- If budget/delivery increased and downstream quality fell after the change, test an
+  expansion or traffic-mix hypothesis.
+- If spend stayed broadly stable while acquisition remained efficient but retention,
+  revenue, or another downstream KPI fell, classify it first as downstream quality
+  deterioration. Investigate audience, inventory, placement, cohort concentration,
+  tracking, and mix shifts; do not label it a budget shock.
+- If acquisition and downstream quality both worsen, keep creative fatigue,
+  targeting saturation, competition, and structural changes in the hypothesis set.
+
+Never invent a causal mechanism from aggregate metrics. State the breakdown needed to
+confirm it, such as placement, device, audience, search term, keyword/match type, geo,
+frequency, or auction diagnostics.
+
+## 3. Decide rollback, containment, or pause
+
+Prefer a controlled rollback/recovery test when all are true:
+
+- a dated intervention plausibly precedes the mature deterioration;
+- a prior configuration is known and operationally restorable;
+- that prior phase has credible evidence, not merely one good day;
+- the rollback does not destroy a currently verified child winner or introduce a
+  broader structural risk.
+
+Rollback is not recovery. If the prior configuration also missed current KPI, label
+the rollback `止损/风险收敛`, not `恢复到有效状态`. Compare it against both the damaged
+phase and the current KPI contract.
+
+During the recovery test, hold other controllable variables fixed. Use the operator's
+configured maturity/sample rule. If none exists, a small run of multiple mature
+cohorts may serve as a provisional checkpoint, followed by a complete recent-window
+validation; clearly label this as a default evidence rule, not a universal truth.
+
+Define exits in advance:
+
+- **Recover:** multiple mature cohorts return to target without a guardrail breach;
+- **Continue cautiously:** directional improvement exists but sample is insufficient;
+- **Escalate/retest:** results remain poor or mixed and a clean hypothesis is testable;
+- **Pause/reduce:** persistent mature failure continues with meaningful exposure and
+  no unresolved data issue.
+
+Avoid daily edits during an observation window unless a hard loss, compliance, or
+tracking guardrail is breached.
+
+## 4. Validate a new or apparent “black horse”
+
+Early averages can be dominated by one cohort. Separate:
+
+- launch/early cohorts;
+- the standout cohort or event;
+- subsequent mature cohorts;
+- immature cohorts, which must not be treated as zeros.
+
+Show how much of the retained outcomes, revenue, or other success measure comes from
+the best day/segment. One strong cohort or one to two good days supports `promising`,
+not `durable winner`. Require the configured minimum sample and multi-cohort
+consistency before scale.
+
+When an early winner weakens but has not accumulated persistent failure, prefer
+hold/protect at a stable test level over immediate scale or pause. Specify the next
+mature checkpoint and the failure condition.
+
+## 5. Rescue a restructured Campaign or Ad Group
+
+Do not decide `replace everything` or `abandon the Campaign` from its aggregate. Build
+a comparison across:
+
+- the prior clean control structure;
+- copied/reused groups;
+- new word packs, audiences, creatives, or match types;
+- current child winners worth protecting.
+
+Measure whether weakness is broad or concentrated and whether the decline started
+before or after each structure change. Historical success is context, but reassess it
+against the current KPI contract; a phase that met acquisition KPI but failed
+downstream quality is not an all-KPI control.
+
+A clean rescue design should:
+
+1. preserve one interpretable control;
+2. isolate one material hypothesis per test group;
+3. reduce duplicate/overlapping audiences, keywords, or creatives where evidence
+   supports overlap risk;
+4. protect verified child winners from being reset or drowned by the test;
+5. use mature, predeclared success and stop conditions.
+
+Do not recommend swapping a whole word pack without keyword/search-term and match-type
+evidence when those are the real levers. Request deeper dimensions only when they can
+change the decision.
+
+## 6. Report the change decision
+
+For an explicitly requested named-Ad follow-up, the optional presentation template is:
+
+```text
+<Ad名称>近7日专项判断
+近7日消耗 | 安装 / 成熟结果 | 主要KPI | 下游KPI | 达标天数
+趋势：<量级、KPI和变更前后走势>
+结论：<保持、回退、低量观察、制作新变体、暂停或扩量判断>
+```
+
+Populate it only from the current source and confirmed context. This is a follow-up
+template, not a standard daily-brief section. Never preserve an example Ad name or
+example metrics as default content.
+
+For each change-related recommendation include:
+
+- entity path and stable ID;
+- declared or inferred change and timestamp;
+- pre-change, transition, and post-change mature evidence;
+- observed fact versus causal hypothesis;
+- action state: rollback/recovery, hold/protect, clean-control retest,
+  pause/reduce, or scale candidate;
+- variables to hold fixed;
+- pacing impact, including the spend gap created by rollback/pause;
+- next mature review point and explicit recover/escalate/exit condition.
+
+Never claim the intervention was executed. This skill remains analysis-only.